Insanely Early Oscar Predictions

Obviously a ludicrous exercise, since there are so many major contenders left to actually see, and I really should get a life, frankly, but this is how I think the major categories are shaping up at the moment. I've placed the nominees in order of likelihood to win, as far as I see it (ie Brokeback Mountain current favourite for Best Pic, then Munich, etc). I've put additional contenders in each category in smaller print.

Best Picture

Brokeback Mountain
Munich
Jarhead
All the King's Men
The Constant Gardener
+/-?
The Producers
A History of Violence

Best Director

Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
Steven Spielberg (Munich)
David Cronenberg (A History of Violence)
Fernando Meirelles (The Constant Gardener)
Terrence Malick (The New World)
+/-?
Susan Stroman (The Producers)
Sam Mendes (Jarhead)
Steven Zaillian (All the King's Men)


Best Actor (I do think Hoffman's got it, but looks like one hell of a strong field)

Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck)
Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
Sean Penn (All the King's Men)
Nathan Lane (The Producers)
+/-?
Viggo Mortensen (A History of Violence)
Ralph Fiennes (The Constant Gardener)
Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
Tommy Lee Jones (The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada) (you dark horse you)

Best Actress (no real frontrunner yet, and weak-looking year: plus, Collette and/or Weisz might be relegated to supporting instead, weakening it even further)

Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line) (aargh)
Charlize Theron (North Country)
Toni Collette (In Her Shoes)
Cameron Diaz (In Her Shoes)
Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
+/-?
Maria Bello (A History of Violence)
Keira Knightley (Pride and Prejudice) (yes, really)
Judi Dench (Mrs Henderson Presents)
Zhang Ziyi (Memoirs of a Geisha)
Joan Allen (The Upside of Anger)
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
ie... fuck knows

Best Supporting Actor (fairly amorphous at present, though I'm pretty sure Broderick and Giamatti will be locks, and I'm nominating all the King's Men roles that got noms for the 1949 version, so hello Jude)

Matthew Broderick (The Producers)
Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
Jude Law (All the King's Men)
Ed Harris (A History of Violence)
Frank Langella (Good Night, and Good Luck) (it's the Alan Alda slot...)
+/-?
Clifton Collins, Jr (Capote)
Peter Sarsgaard (Jarhead) (third time lucky, maybe, and I really hope he redeems himself for Flightplan)
Will Ferrell (The Producers) (only throwing this in cos "Academy Award nominee Will Ferrell" will just sound too funny. On the evidence of Winter Passing he can actually hold a tune, too.)


Best Supporting Actress (shaping up to be a damn good list...)

Amy Adams (Junebug)
Patricia Clarkson (All the King's Men)
Catherine Keener (Capote)
Shirley MacLaine (In Her Shoes)
Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
+/-?
Frances McDormand (North Country)
Sandra Bullock (Crash) (please not Thandie Newton)


So I'm thinking: not much for Crash or Cinderella Man, no Bill Murray, no Jake Gyllenhaal, nothing for Proof at all. Munich, Jarhead and All The King's Men are the big unknown quantities. Watch this space...