Wednesday, October 05, 2005

PS to that

Maybe I'm overlooking Memoirs of a Geisha (OscarWatch has it heavily tipped). But, I don't know, all the frippery in the trailer screamed "busted Oscar contender" to me, and Rob Chicago Marshall would have been few people's first choice to direct it. Zhang Ziyi, I'm told, is a shoo-in Best Actress nominee. Fair enough. Gong Li, I hear, has a good shot at supporting. And I wouldn't want to bet against Colleen Atwood's costumes, Dion Beebe's cinematography, and John Williams's music being nominated either. But the overall movie? Kind of depends whether the early parts of it serve up too much destitution chic. We'll have to wait and see, but on a hunch I'm keeping it off my list for the time being.

Memo to self: this is not going to turn into an Oscar blog. (Self: Yeah, right...)

9 comments:

Nick Davis said...

I'm feeling something like a Ripley outcome for Geisha, Oscar-wise. As in, multiple nominations, as much or more as some of the heavier hitters, but not necessarily in the topmost categories. Maybe an acting nod for Zhang (I'm really doubting she'll win), and it's too early to know whom the studio will push for supporting. But a movie with built-in appeal to this many branches is hard to say no to, so early in the season.

Nick Davis said...

Just P.S., my sinking feeling pertains to All the King's Men. I have this hunch it will get those Manchurian Candidate reviews—sure, thanks, but did we need another one?—and as much distress as it will cause in my imaginary household, the world seems ready for an official Sean Penn backlash.

Still rooting for Patty, though. Don't see how she can miss as the standout woman in two male-centric casts in male-centric films that are big Oscar contenders. She has everything going for her that Basinger did, except she's a better actress, and the industry admires her more. (How else do you get nodded for Pieces of April?)

tim r said...

You may be right about ATKM. I'm not necessarily expecting to love the movie, though I'm hoping it will be sturdy enough. In the UK at least, the Sean backlash started about 5 years ago (sorry!). But you've got to believe that Columbia are going to be mounting one of their biggest campaigns ever for this - it's the kind of prestige pic that will live or die by its nominations. (Ditto Geisha, I guess). As a remake of a movie that won Best Picture, I really doubt it has much chance of serious payday. But it'll take very good competition (or really conspicuous mediocrity) to keep it out of the top five I'm guessing.

Patty's almost bound to be nominated. But it might not be her day if Weisz or Collette get shunted down into that category, as seems (in the latter case depressingly) likely. Plus I think Amy Adams is just so damn good she might walk off with it on (gasp!) merit alone. Wouldn't that be something?

Do you think Good Night, and Good Luck is that big a contender? I wonder if something as silly as brevity will tell against it. Really looking forward to seeing it though.

Nick Davis said...

I think Bello and MacLaine could both be significant forces in the Best Supporting Actress derby, alongside Clarkson and maybe Weisz. I can see the In Her Shoes team pushing for co-lead nods on Cameron and Toni more than I can see Shirley MacLaine letting anyone get in her way—underplaying and no make-up, and now she's supposed to split a vote? I'm also wondering about Laura Linney in The Squid and the Whale, which seems poised to make a splash over here (honestly, no pun intended), possibly for Jeff Daniels, as well. I agree with you that Keener and Williams are contenders, and I haven't even seen the films!

I keep postponing just drafting up my own imagined ballot, which I should just get around and do. But yeah, Good Night, and Good Luck. will be right in the thick of things. Important subject, Strathairn is sure to be nominated, I would think the script has a more than credible shot, and that Venice impression was huge.

Nick Davis said...

Also in Supporting Actress, you left out Lena Headey in The Brothers Grimm. ;)

Nick Davis said...

Last thing, honestly: if Best Actress really does turn into a vacuum, and it basically comes down to who's owed and who does the Academy like, it's Joan Allen's to win way before it's Reese Witherspoon's. I know it sounds crazy, and it certainly is wishful thinking, but if someone doesn't make a major Monster-style play sometime soon, Allen will win the same way Jessica Lange did in 1994, for a movie even fewer people had seen.

tim r said...

I really hope so.

Ginger said...

Looks like by many accounts the most Oscar worthy performance of the year by a leading actress is a performance that's going to be ineligible: Annette Bening in "Mrs. Harris." How does one get to see this movie if one doesn't subscribe to HBO?

tim r said...

No doubt it will get a DVD release eventually. But it's pretty baffling to me than they're not even giving it a week's qualifying run in theaters. She'd be virtually a sure thing for a nomination if they did, particularly in such an undecided year in that category. And, Blue Sky-style, she might even have won it. Hey ho.