Tuesday, December 13, 2005

mainlymovies guesses the Oscars

The Golden Globe nominations are out, and they've thrown up a few surprises, and at least one shocker as far as I'm concerned: Sarah Jessica Parker for the godawful The Family Stone. I'm not a serious film-awards prognosticator - head on over to Nathaniel R's Film Experience for that - but I'm certainly a confirmed Oscar addict, and here, for the record, are the people and flicks I think are going to be getting nominated on Jan 31.

*=likely winner at this point

Best Picture

*Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
King Kong
A History of Violence
Walk the Line

near-miss: Munich (get thee to the Variety review, folks: it's a death-knell)

Best Director

Peter Jackson (King Kong)
*Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
James Mangold (Walk the Line)
Fernando Meirelles (The Constant Gardener)
Steven Spielberg (Munich)

near-misses: David Cronenberg (A History of Violence) and George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck)

Best Actor

Jeff Daniels (The Squid and the Whale)
*Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck)

near-miss: Ralph Fiennes (The Constant Gardener)

Best Actress

Judi Dench (Mrs Henderson Presents)
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Keira Knightley (Pride & Prejudice)
Charlize Theron (North Country)
*Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)

near-miss: Laura Linney (The Squid and the Whale)

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams (Junebug) (so damn good I think she'll be remembered)
Maria Bello (A History of Violence) (assuming category switch, which I think is likely)
Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
Shirley MacLaine (In Her Shoes)
*Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain) (Yep, I think a Brokeback sweep will carry her to a win, just like Binoche over Bacall in 1996. You may, or may not, have heard it here first.)

near-miss: Frances McDormand (North Country)

Best Supporting Actor

George Clooney (Syriana)
Matt Dillon (Crash)
*Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man) (classic consolation Oscar here)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain) (a groundswell around the film should pull him back in)
Bob Hoskins (Mrs Henderson Presents)

near-miss: William Hurt (A History of Violence)

Best Original Screenplay

Woody Allen (Match Point) (I hear from every British critic I trust that the movie is dire - even worse than Allen's last few. US and French critics seem to love it, Brits loathe it for how silly and touristy it is. Not sure this will necessarily impact much on its Oscar chances. But, despite the possibility of Johansson for supporting actress, I'm sceptically confining it to this category myself.)
Noah Baumbach (The Squid and the Whale)
*George Clooney and Grant Heslov (Good Night, and Good Luck)
Paul Haggis and Robert Moresco (Crash)
Akiva Goldsman and Cliff Hollingsworth (Cinderella Man) (only because it's such a weak year. My God, should it be Junebug...)

Best Adapted Screenplay

*Stephen Gaghan (Syriana)
Tony Kushner and Eric Roth (Munich)
Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana (Brokeback Mountain)
Dan Futterman (Capote)
Peter Jackson etc (King Kong)

And I'll stop there. Thoughts?


Ginger said...

I fear "Cinderella Man" will garner Best Picture, Best Director and Best Supporting Actress nods as well as the Best Supporting Actor nod you tip. Not sure about the screenplay. Then again, I generally throw my hands up in that category. The Academy members usually wouldn't know a truly good screenplay if it bit them in the arse. Which will explain the screenplay nod for "Munich" (the worst piece of mainstream writing to emerge in eons), which I agree will happen.

I wish "A History of Violence" could nab all those nods but somehow don't think it will.

I fear there may be surprise noms for "The Interpreter," particularly for Kidman or Penn.

Here's my thinking:

PICTURE: Cinderella Man, Brokeback Mountain, Good Night, And Good Luck, Walk the Line, King Kong

DIRECTOR: Howard, Lee, Clooney, Mangold, Jackson

ACTOR: Hoffman, Fiennes, Phoenix, Ledger, Straitharn

ACTRESS: Dench, Witherspoon, Watts, Theron, Huffman

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Clooney, Giamatti, Terence Howard, Gyllenhaal

tim r said...

I still feel there's a whiff of "don't forget us!" desperation to all those ads pushing Cinderella Man, but I suppose one can never overestimate the Academy's weakness for bad Ron Howard movies. (Which is to say, Ron Howard movies.)

Hope you're right about Watts for King Kong. I like her in it a lot.